It’s the 15th of the month which means it is time to try to add a modicum of respectability to this financial powerhouse of a blog, as opposed to the inane drivel that is splattered across these pages the rest of the month. Yes that’s right, I’ve been shopping again/collecting data!

In a shocking turn of events today the Government numbers for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) were released  at 0.1% as reported by Reuters and my total for the monthly shop increased a similar amount. Coincidence or are we starting to get the truth reported!? Anyway there was the faint odor of inflation permeating the air at the supermarket as you can see by my $98.18 total. Hopefully my calculations are a bit better than the ‘intentional’ mistake I made last month, spotted by my keen eyed reader Viejatwit , thank you.

$3.99 {+$1.15} 1lb Land O’ Lakes unsalted butter
$2.39 {-$0.60} 1 dozen Eggland’s Best large grade ‘A’ eggs
$1.66 {+$0.33} 2 liter bottle of Coca-Cola Classic
$7.95 {+$3.00} 5lb Perdue Oven Stuffer whole roaster chicken
$9.99 {No Change} 12 pack of Charmin Ultra Strong toilet paper
$2.55 {-$0.64} 1 loaf of Wonder Bread Classic White
$3.79 {No Change} 2.5 Gallons of Poland Spring drinking water
$2.79 {No Change} 6.4oz. Starkist Chunk Light Tuna in water
$3.98 {-$1.00} 2lb of 80% lean ground beef
$3.19 {No Change} 5.6oz. Aquafresh Triple Protection toothpaste
$2.99 {-$1.00} 1lb Seedless White Grapes
$1.99 {-$0.51} 5lb Idaho Potatoes
$2.49 {No Change} 3 Bars of Dial Soap white
$27.99 {No Change} Nestle Good Start 2 Natural Cultures 9-24 Months baby food
$2.99 {No Change} 12 oz. box of Kellogg’s Cornflakes
$3.49 {No Change} 11.3 oz Folgers Classic Roast coffee
$5.49 {No Change} 3lb Uncle Bens long grain rice
$1.79 {+$0.09} 4 pack 9 Lives cat food
$2.99 {No Change} 50 oz. Ajax laundry detergent
$3.69 {-$0.10} 5lb Domino Pure Cane Granulated Sugar
Total: $98.18 {+$0.72}

Have a great weekend…

-Luke Sidewalker

-Current balance $26.20

For arguments sake let’s say you walk into a store and buy a widget for 75 cents. You dutifully hand over a dollar bill to the store owner, he then apologizes because he has no quarters or dimes and has to make change using five nickels instead. You huff and puff but except the five coins, money is money after all, right? WRONG!

Lately because of the price gyrations in the commodity markets, and due to the different metal compositions of the two coins in question, by giving you five nickels the store owner actually gave you 26.1 cents in change due to the rising price of nickel. Yes that’s right, at today’s market prices the metal in the 5 cent coin is actually worth 5.23 cents, a rather healthy 4+% premium! I bet you are intrigued now about the value of the metal content in the quarter? You are correct to be curious, so allow me to disappoint you! The metal content of a quarter is worth about 4.9 cents at current prices.

Could you have got a better deal by requesting a different breakdown for your 25 cents change? Absolutely. It would be a long shot, but if you asked for your change to be made with 25 pre-1982 pennies, the store owner would have unwittingly given you approximately 57.5 cents worth of copper for the 25 cents of change. The pre-1982 penny’s over generous copper content makes it worth an astounding 2.3 cents at today’s copper prices. In percentage terms that is an incredible premium of 130% over face value. Are you guys still sure Ben Bernanke knows what he is doing? If you think I ride Bumblin’ Ben  hard, I’d just like to make it clear, I don’t hate the man, I just think he is in way over his head and no one is protecting my savings from his reckless monetary policy.

So now you know which coins are worth keeping in your coin jar and not banking, do you want to know what is the worst value coin of the bunch? Of course you do. Well it’s rather fitting actually, as you will see. The coin that is worth the biggest discount from face value as per metal content is none other than the 2007-2010 Presidential Dollar coin! It may have a dollar face value but the metal is worth just shy of 6 cents, a whopping 94% discount to face. Just to be clear this is an equal opportunity thumbing of my nose at the incumbent and previous holder of the ‘Office’ (note the dates of minting on the Presidential Dollar), so no political flaming please!

Where did I get all this great information from? Well here is a major hat tip to the guys over at www.coinflation.com, if you get the chance check out their site. It appeals to my inner coin nerd…

-Luke Sidewalker

-Current balance $25.80

My Shopping with Sidewalker feature this month may be a day late, but as you can see from the total below, it is not a dollar short. In stark contrast to the words of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke telling all that will listen that inflation is a non-existent threat, my grocery bill has gone up for the second month in a row. Month over a month I have seen just over a 1% increase. Just prove to Mr. Bernanke that he is not the only one who can be a smart arse with numbers, that equates to an annualized rate of inflation at just over 12%. Stick that in your non-inflationary pipe and smoke it Mr. Bernanke…

$2.84 {+$0.09} 1lb Land O’ Lakes unsalted butter
$2.99 {No Change} 1 dozen Eggland’s Best large grade ‘A’ eggs
$1.33 {-$0.33} 2 liter bottle of Coca-Cola Classic
$4.95 {+$1.00} 5lb Perdue Oven Stuffer whole roaster chicken
$9.99 {No Change} 12 pack of Charmin Ultra Strong toilet paper
$3.19 {No Change} 1 loaf of Wonder Bread Classic White
$3.79 {No Change} 2.5 Gallons of Poland Spring drinking water
$2.79 {No Change} 6.4oz. Starkist Chunk Light Tuna in water
$4.98 {-$0.40} 2lb of 80% lean ground beef
$3.19 {No Change} 5.6oz. Aquafresh Triple Protection toothpaste
$3.99 {+$1.00} 1lb Seedless White Grapes
$2.50 {+$0.51} 5lb Idaho Potatoes
$2.49 {+$0.20} 3 Bars of Dial Soap white
$27.99 {No Change} Nestle Good Start 2 Natural Cultures 9-24 Months baby food
$2.99 {No Change} 12 oz. box of Kellogg’s Cornflakes
$3.49 {No Change} 11.3 oz Folgers Classic Roast coffee
$5.49 {No Change} 3lb Uncle Bens long grain rice
$1.70 {-$0.09} 4 pack 9 Lives cat food
$2.99 {No Change} 50 oz. Ajax laundry detergent
$3.79 {+$0.20} 5lb Domino Pure Cane Granulated Sugar
Total: $97.46 {+$1.18}

-Luke Sidewalker

-Current balance $25.63

As I emptied the mail box at Castle Sidewalker this morning I was disturbed to see a letter from our medical insurance company. The reason for my angst? Quite simply I have never received a letter from them that has either been a refund or a premium reduction. And sure enough this letter did not buck that trend. They kindly informed me that as of January 1st they are jacking my premium by a ‘healthy’ 17.6%.

This notification left me scratching my head, as only last week Ben Bernanke the Chairman of the Federal Reserve had said in is statement that inflation was currently non existent, and he was set to continue his Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP).

I thought about writing back to the insurance company refusing their generous premium hike, citing the testimony of the man closest to the heartbeat of our economy. So you can see the conundrum we have here. Somewhere someones nose is growing Pinocchio style. The question is whose nose. Is it Mr. Bernanke’s or is it the CEO of my insurance company?

If there is no inflation, then my insurance company is gouging me. If there is inflation, then why my are my savings receiving 0.1% interest? Either way, regular people like you and me are getting the run-around. Would the last person to leave the Middle Class  please turn the light out…

I’ll leave you with this question, who do you think is lying to me? The insurance company or the Federal Reserve Chairman? Your thoughts on this would be most welcome.

-Luke Sidewalker

-Current balance $25.07

The 15th of the month rolled around quickly, so that means it’s off to the supermarket again for my monthly ‘man in the street’ inflation or deflation litmus test! The white seedless grapes are continuing their relentless push higher. I’m wondering how long it will be until a bunch of grapes are more expensive than a bottle of wine!

As you can see the bottom half of my list the prices have remained quite static. Sugar getting a little cheaper, but overall the cost of my basket of groceries has risen about 1% over last months check. Should the Federal Reserve have their finger on the trigger to raise rates? My opinion on this is don’t hold your breath, no relief for savers any time soon!

$2.75 {-$1.24} 1lb Land O’ Lakes unsalted butter
$2.99 {+$0.50} 1 dozen Eggland’s Best large grade ‘A’ eggs
$1.66 {+$0.32} 2 liter bottle of Coca-Cola Classic
$3.95 {+$0.50} 5lb Perdue Oven Stuffer whole roaster chicken
$9.99 {No Change} 12 pack of Charmin Ultra Strong toilet paper
$3.19 {No Change} 1 loaf of Wonder Bread Classic White
$3.79 {No Change} 2.5 Gallons of Poland Spring drinking water
$2.79 {No Change} 6.4oz. Starkist Chunk Light Tuna in water
$5.38 {+$0.40} 2lb of 80% lean ground beef
$3.19 {No Change} 5.6oz. Aquafresh Triple Protection toothpaste
$3.99 {+$1.00} 1lb Seedless White Grapes
$1.99 {-$0.51} 5lb Idaho Potatoes
$2.29 {No Change} 3 Bars of Dial Soap white
$27.99 {No Change} Nestle Good Start 2 Natural Cultures 9-24 Months baby food
$2.99 {No Change} 12 oz. box of Kellogg’s Cornflakes
$3.49 {No Change} 11.3 oz Folgers Classic Roast coffee
$5.49 {No Change} 3lb Uncle Bens long grain rice
$1.79 {No change} 4 pack 9 Lives cat food
$2.99 {No Change} 50 oz. Ajax laundry detergent
$3.59 {-$0.10} 5lb Domino Pure Cane Granulated Sugar
Total: $96.28 {+$0.87}

-Luke Sidewalker
-Current balance $24.54

After two long days of nut scratching the Federal Reserve offered up its statement yesterday afternoon, and true to the form of the last few years it was once again laced with contradictions and ambiguity.  I won’t get into the nuts and bolts of it because it is not worthy of a detailed deconstruct, but here is the bit that gets my goat the most.

The Fed said they see an improvement in the economy (that is welcome and good news, if you believe them).  They then went on to say that they are going to keep interest rates low for an extended period of time. So what is it? If we are improving let’s raise rates to head off inflation, or is the economy still circling the bowl as implied by the second sentence?

As if that wasn’t confusing enough mix in the Treasury saying they are in favor of a strong dollar, as they willfully stand by as it takes a swan dive like a Mexican cliff diver, and anyone on the outside looking in would wonder what the hell is going on here.

At times like this I turn to the price of Gold, as I like to think of it as the ‘Barometer of Truth’. Because being an inanimate object  (it’s literally a rock!) it cannot lie or cheat us. I like to think the value of Gold is unchanged and all other goods, services and currencies are the ones whose value oscillates. So let’s check the barometer shall we? Oh look it’s at an all time high closing at $1092 last night. That means we can throw the ‘strong dollar’ baloney out the window, and anyone who thinks a weakening dollar policy is an easy pain-free way out of the credit crisis let me tell you it is your purchasing power that is getting eroded, therefore it is you that is paying the tab. A rising Gold price is also indicative of inflation, and if that is truly upon us in tandem with anemic economic growth, the good people at the Federal Reserve will have to have a few more bunny rabbits left to pull out of their figurative hat.

Sorry for the rant, but the inconsistencies from our financial leaders is starting to wear on me…

Oh and one last thing, I know the image on this post is a thermometer and not a barometer, but I couldn’t find any cool graphics of an exploding barometer!

-Luke Sidewalker

-Current balance $24.30

It’s the 15th of the month, so that means it’s time for a trip to the supermarket. This is the third month of the Shopping with Sidewalker feature. It has been the most expensive month so far indicating inflation perhaps?. However the Federal Reserve has told us the threat of inflation is minimal, so that can’t be the cause of the price rises then can it? Perhaps it is their weak dollar policy that is increasing the price of imports? Ding, ding, ding, ding. That was the bell going off for anyone thinking that trashing the dollar would be an easy way out of this credit mess. Perhaps it will get the banks off the hook, but with a weaker dollar guess who is paying the bill (again!)?

Some observations I’ve made. The price of the white seedless grapes are very erratic. I guess that is seasonality and shipping costs. Meanwhile the price of sugar is creeping up every month. Other than that there is nothing too crazy apart from the fact it was $2.41 more than last month! That is just under 3% month over month.

$3.99 {+$1.20} 1lb Land O’ Lakes unsalted butter
$2.49 {-$0.01} 1 dozen Eggland’s Best large grade ‘A’ eggs
$1.34 {+$0.01} 2 liter bottle of Coca-Cola Classic
$3.45 {-$0.50} 5lb Perdue Oven Stuffer whole roaster chicken
$9.99 {No Change} 12 pack of Charmin Ultra Strong toilet paper
$3.19 {No Change} 1 loaf of Wonder Bread Classic White
$3.79 {No Change} 2.5 Gallons of Poland Spring drinking water
$2.79 {No Change} 6.4oz. Starkist Chunk Light Tuna in water
$4.98 {No Change} 2lb of 80% lean ground beef
$3.19 {No Change} 5.6oz. Aquafresh Triple Protection toothpaste
$2.99 {+$1.70} 1lb Seedless White Grapes
$2.50 {-0.99} 5lb Idaho Potatoes
$2.29 {No Change} 3 Bars of Dial Soap white
$27.99 {No Change} Nestle Good Start 2 Natural Cultures 9-24 Months baby food
$2.99 {No Change} 12 oz. box of Kellogg’s Cornflakes
$3.49 {+$0.50} 11.3 oz Folgers Classic Roast coffee
$5.49 {No Change} 3lb Uncle Bens long grain rice
$1.79 {No change} 4 pack 9 Lives cat food
$2.99 {+$0.30} 50 oz. Ajax laundry detergent
$3.69 {+$0.20} 5lb Domino Pure Cane Granulated Sugar
Total: $95.41 {+$2.41}

-Luke Sidewalker
-Current balance $23.60

Days since inception: 638
Cash balance: $22.55 (all time)
Cents per day: 3.5345(since inception)
Predicted day for $1,000,000: Sunday January 18th 77,339 AD

9/30/2009
$1,000,000
= 993.54 oz of Gold @ $1006.50 (as per Nymex close near month)
= 14,220.70 barrels of oil @ $70.32 (as per Nymex close Light Sweet Crude near month)
= 60,808.76 oz of Silver @ $16.445 (as per Nymex close near month)

Although I did not reach my target of $23 by the end of September, I fell 45 cents short, I did manage to knock 7,000 years off my predicted completion date. I started off the month at the U.S. Open. Also, this month marked the first time we found paper money on the sidewalk when Mrs S. snagged a buck in the parking lot at the Malibu Diner in Hoboken. Is this further evidence of inflation? My Shopping with Sidewalker feature showed a month on month decline in prices, is this further evidence of deflation? And by the end of the month I had dogs living with cats, and cats living with dogs (see post below). These are indeed interesting times as we, as a nation, seek our ‘new normal’ in a testing economic environment.

For the sake of nice round numbers I will make my target for the end of October $25.In the next couple of days I will post about the investment decisions we have taken for the Sidewalker Fund. Let’s hope the fun we had in September continues on into October and the Halloween season.

-Luke Sidewalker
-Current balance $22.55

I must admit on the odd occasion I see the business news channels it really makes me laugh. When these programs want to discuss the state of the economy they invariably trot out some blowhard economist, who has attended Harvard Business School and is currently employed by one of the tax dollar guzzling big banks. He or she more than likely has two homes, several cars, a base salary of at least $500k plus bonus (if their institution can wring any more money out of us peons).

You will hear them talk about leading indicators, budget deficits, GDP, inflation, deflation, trade balances, (un)employment, money supply; the list goes on and on (I don’t want to loose readers, but you get the idea).

With my hand on my heart, I tell you I could do their job by making four local phone calls a month, lasting less than a minute each. I call my local homeless dog shelter and inquire about their occupancy rates. Their answer tells me all I need to know about the health of the economy. No business school, no big salary, no holiday Castle Sidewalker in the Hamptons for me.

So if you want to know how the economy is doing pick up the phone, make the call to the dog shelter and consult my handy guide below.

1) They have one dog – You should start taking dance lessons to learn the Charleston. The roaring 20′s are upon us once again. Buy, buy, buy this party ain’t never going to end.

2) They have a couple of strays – Go refinance your permanent residence to buy a vacation home in Florida. Then refinance the Florida home to buy a mountain lodge in the Rockies. Rinse and repeat.

3) They are half full – You won’t get a pay rise this year, but it shouldn’t stop you buying a jet ski and an ATV, both of which will get used once, before becoming garage ornaments.

4)They have a couple of spare kennels – Your salary will get cut in half, but it rocks that you still have a job. Your two next door neighbors will soon be jobless and buying groceries on their credit card.

5) Every kennel is taken – If you are not yet, you soon will be jobless and penniless, going without food so your wife and children can eat. You’ll take down the kitchen cabinets to burn as firewood, and you’ll be looking to sell the copper piping from your plumbing, if you could only find a buyer. Everyone on your street will soon stop paying their mortgage.

6) They sent the overflow of stray dogs to the cat home – Watch out when this happens. We will be dangerously close to the event horizon of a financial black hole. I hope it’s not tomorrow.

So go ahead make the call, I sincerely hope your local dog shelter has plenty of vacancies. And when they answer you, think of that blowhard economist on the TV…

-Luke Sidewalker
-Current balance $22.54

I’ve just returned from doing the monthly research for my grocery shopping feature. Wow, that is all I can say….just wow. Ever since I fled the nest of Mama and Papa Sidewalker several decades ago I have been doing my own grocery shopping. I always look for a bargain and, most likely as you do, I load up when I see one. As long as my total bill came within an acceptable range week over week I never broke down the individual cost of items. So let’s just say this little exercise has been an eye opener as to how much base prices gyrate month over month.

Just to reiterate, this is not a budget exercise, these are base prices without coupons or loyalty card discounts (both of which I use on my actual shop, as opposed to this virtual shop). It is intended to look for evidence for inflation or deflation in the weekly grocery shop from a baseline perspective.

Below are this months prices. The amount in brackets is the change from last months report.

$2.79 {-$1.70} 1lb Land O’ Lakes unsalted butter
$2.50 {-$0.79} 1 dozen Eggland’s Best large grade ‘A’ eggs
$1.33 {-$0.33} 2 liter bottle of Coca-Cola Classic
$3.95 {-$0.80} 5lb Perdue Oven Stuffer whole roaster chicken
$9.99 {No Change} 12 pack of Charmin Ultra Strong toilet paper
$3.19 {+$0.69} 1 loaf of Wonder Bread Classic White
$3.79 {No Change} 2.5 Gallons of Poland Spring drinking water
$2.79 {No Change} 6.4oz. Starkist Chunk Light Tuna in water
$4.98 {No Change} 2lb of 80% lean ground beef
$3.19 {No Change} 5.6oz. Aquafresh Triple Protection toothpaste
$1.29 {-$0.70} 1lb Seedless White Grapes
$3.49 {No Change} 5lb Idaho Potatoes
$2.29 {No Change} 3 Bars of Dial Soap white
$27.99 {+$2.50} Nestle Good Start 2 Natural Cultures 9-24 Months baby food
$2.99 {No Change} 12 oz. box of Kellogg’s Cornflakes
$2.99 {-$0.50} 11.3 oz Folgers Classic Roast coffee
$5.49 {No Change} 3lb Uncle Bens long grain rice
$1.79 {No change} 4 pack 9 Lives cat food
$2.69 {-$0.30} 50 oz. Ajax laundry detergent
$3.49 {+$0.30} 5lb Domino Pure Cane Granulated Sugar
Total: $93.00 {-$1.63}

As you can see 10 of the 20 items this month had a price change, resulting in an overall reduction in the total of $1.63. So for the time being the pendulum swings to the deflation side…

-Luke Sidewalker
-Current balance $20.94