The 15th of the month rolled around quickly, so that means it’s off to the supermarket again for my monthly ‘man in the street’ inflation or deflation litmus test! The white seedless grapes are continuing their relentless push higher. I’m wondering how long it will be until a bunch of grapes are more expensive than a bottle of wine!

As you can see the bottom half of my list the prices have remained quite static. Sugar getting a little cheaper, but overall the cost of my basket of groceries has risen about 1% over last months check. Should the Federal Reserve have their finger on the trigger to raise rates? My opinion on this is don’t hold your breath, no relief for savers any time soon!

$2.75 {-$1.24} 1lb Land O’ Lakes unsalted butter
$2.99 {+$0.50} 1 dozen Eggland’s Best large grade ‘A’ eggs
$1.66 {+$0.32} 2 liter bottle of Coca-Cola Classic
$3.95 {+$0.50} 5lb Perdue Oven Stuffer whole roaster chicken
$9.99 {No Change} 12 pack of Charmin Ultra Strong toilet paper
$3.19 {No Change} 1 loaf of Wonder Bread Classic White
$3.79 {No Change} 2.5 Gallons of Poland Spring drinking water
$2.79 {No Change} 6.4oz. Starkist Chunk Light Tuna in water
$5.38 {+$0.40} 2lb of 80% lean ground beef
$3.19 {No Change} 5.6oz. Aquafresh Triple Protection toothpaste
$3.99 {+$1.00} 1lb Seedless White Grapes
$1.99 {-$0.51} 5lb Idaho Potatoes
$2.29 {No Change} 3 Bars of Dial Soap white
$27.99 {No Change} Nestle Good Start 2 Natural Cultures 9-24 Months baby food
$2.99 {No Change} 12 oz. box of Kellogg’s Cornflakes
$3.49 {No Change} 11.3 oz Folgers Classic Roast coffee
$5.49 {No Change} 3lb Uncle Bens long grain rice
$1.79 {No change} 4 pack 9 Lives cat food
$2.99 {No Change} 50 oz. Ajax laundry detergent
$3.59 {-$0.10} 5lb Domino Pure Cane Granulated Sugar
Total: $96.28 {+$0.87}

-Luke Sidewalker
-Current balance $24.54

It’s the 15th of the month, so that means it’s time for a trip to the supermarket. This is the third month of the Shopping with Sidewalker feature. It has been the most expensive month so far indicating inflation perhaps?. However the Federal Reserve has told us the threat of inflation is minimal, so that can’t be the cause of the price rises then can it? Perhaps it is their weak dollar policy that is increasing the price of imports? Ding, ding, ding, ding. That was the bell going off for anyone thinking that trashing the dollar would be an easy way out of this credit mess. Perhaps it will get the banks off the hook, but with a weaker dollar guess who is paying the bill (again!)?

Some observations I’ve made. The price of the white seedless grapes are very erratic. I guess that is seasonality and shipping costs. Meanwhile the price of sugar is creeping up every month. Other than that there is nothing too crazy apart from the fact it was $2.41 more than last month! That is just under 3% month over month.

$3.99 {+$1.20} 1lb Land O’ Lakes unsalted butter
$2.49 {-$0.01} 1 dozen Eggland’s Best large grade ‘A’ eggs
$1.34 {+$0.01} 2 liter bottle of Coca-Cola Classic
$3.45 {-$0.50} 5lb Perdue Oven Stuffer whole roaster chicken
$9.99 {No Change} 12 pack of Charmin Ultra Strong toilet paper
$3.19 {No Change} 1 loaf of Wonder Bread Classic White
$3.79 {No Change} 2.5 Gallons of Poland Spring drinking water
$2.79 {No Change} 6.4oz. Starkist Chunk Light Tuna in water
$4.98 {No Change} 2lb of 80% lean ground beef
$3.19 {No Change} 5.6oz. Aquafresh Triple Protection toothpaste
$2.99 {+$1.70} 1lb Seedless White Grapes
$2.50 {-0.99} 5lb Idaho Potatoes
$2.29 {No Change} 3 Bars of Dial Soap white
$27.99 {No Change} Nestle Good Start 2 Natural Cultures 9-24 Months baby food
$2.99 {No Change} 12 oz. box of Kellogg’s Cornflakes
$3.49 {+$0.50} 11.3 oz Folgers Classic Roast coffee
$5.49 {No Change} 3lb Uncle Bens long grain rice
$1.79 {No change} 4 pack 9 Lives cat food
$2.99 {+$0.30} 50 oz. Ajax laundry detergent
$3.69 {+$0.20} 5lb Domino Pure Cane Granulated Sugar
Total: $95.41 {+$2.41}

-Luke Sidewalker
-Current balance $23.60

Days since inception: 638
Cash balance: $22.55 (all time)
Cents per day: 3.5345(since inception)
Predicted day for $1,000,000: Sunday January 18th 77,339 AD

9/30/2009
$1,000,000
= 993.54 oz of Gold @ $1006.50 (as per Nymex close near month)
= 14,220.70 barrels of oil @ $70.32 (as per Nymex close Light Sweet Crude near month)
= 60,808.76 oz of Silver @ $16.445 (as per Nymex close near month)

Although I did not reach my target of $23 by the end of September, I fell 45 cents short, I did manage to knock 7,000 years off my predicted completion date. I started off the month at the U.S. Open. Also, this month marked the first time we found paper money on the sidewalk when Mrs S. snagged a buck in the parking lot at the Malibu Diner in Hoboken. Is this further evidence of inflation? My Shopping with Sidewalker feature showed a month on month decline in prices, is this further evidence of deflation? And by the end of the month I had dogs living with cats, and cats living with dogs (see post below). These are indeed interesting times as we, as a nation, seek our ‘new normal’ in a testing economic environment.

For the sake of nice round numbers I will make my target for the end of October $25.In the next couple of days I will post about the investment decisions we have taken for the Sidewalker Fund. Let’s hope the fun we had in September continues on into October and the Halloween season.

-Luke Sidewalker
-Current balance $22.55

I must admit on the odd occasion I see the business news channels it really makes me laugh. When these programs want to discuss the state of the economy they invariably trot out some blowhard economist, who has attended Harvard Business School and is currently employed by one of the tax dollar guzzling big banks. He or she more than likely has two homes, several cars, a base salary of at least $500k plus bonus (if their institution can wring any more money out of us peons).

You will hear them talk about leading indicators, budget deficits, GDP, inflation, deflation, trade balances, (un)employment, money supply; the list goes on and on (I don’t want to loose readers, but you get the idea).

With my hand on my heart, I tell you I could do their job by making four local phone calls a month, lasting less than a minute each. I call my local homeless dog shelter and inquire about their occupancy rates. Their answer tells me all I need to know about the health of the economy. No business school, no big salary, no holiday Castle Sidewalker in the Hamptons for me.

So if you want to know how the economy is doing pick up the phone, make the call to the dog shelter and consult my handy guide below.

1) They have one dog – You should start taking dance lessons to learn the Charleston. The roaring 20′s are upon us once again. Buy, buy, buy this party ain’t never going to end.

2) They have a couple of strays – Go refinance your permanent residence to buy a vacation home in Florida. Then refinance the Florida home to buy a mountain lodge in the Rockies. Rinse and repeat.

3) They are half full – You won’t get a pay rise this year, but it shouldn’t stop you buying a jet ski and an ATV, both of which will get used once, before becoming garage ornaments.

4)They have a couple of spare kennels – Your salary will get cut in half, but it rocks that you still have a job. Your two next door neighbors will soon be jobless and buying groceries on their credit card.

5) Every kennel is taken – If you are not yet, you soon will be jobless and penniless, going without food so your wife and children can eat. You’ll take down the kitchen cabinets to burn as firewood, and you’ll be looking to sell the copper piping from your plumbing, if you could only find a buyer. Everyone on your street will soon stop paying their mortgage.

6) They sent the overflow of stray dogs to the cat home – Watch out when this happens. We will be dangerously close to the event horizon of a financial black hole. I hope it’s not tomorrow.

So go ahead make the call, I sincerely hope your local dog shelter has plenty of vacancies. And when they answer you, think of that blowhard economist on the TV…

-Luke Sidewalker
-Current balance $22.54

I’ve just returned from doing the monthly research for my grocery shopping feature. Wow, that is all I can say….just wow. Ever since I fled the nest of Mama and Papa Sidewalker several decades ago I have been doing my own grocery shopping. I always look for a bargain and, most likely as you do, I load up when I see one. As long as my total bill came within an acceptable range week over week I never broke down the individual cost of items. So let’s just say this little exercise has been an eye opener as to how much base prices gyrate month over month.

Just to reiterate, this is not a budget exercise, these are base prices without coupons or loyalty card discounts (both of which I use on my actual shop, as opposed to this virtual shop). It is intended to look for evidence for inflation or deflation in the weekly grocery shop from a baseline perspective.

Below are this months prices. The amount in brackets is the change from last months report.

$2.79 {-$1.70} 1lb Land O’ Lakes unsalted butter
$2.50 {-$0.79} 1 dozen Eggland’s Best large grade ‘A’ eggs
$1.33 {-$0.33} 2 liter bottle of Coca-Cola Classic
$3.95 {-$0.80} 5lb Perdue Oven Stuffer whole roaster chicken
$9.99 {No Change} 12 pack of Charmin Ultra Strong toilet paper
$3.19 {+$0.69} 1 loaf of Wonder Bread Classic White
$3.79 {No Change} 2.5 Gallons of Poland Spring drinking water
$2.79 {No Change} 6.4oz. Starkist Chunk Light Tuna in water
$4.98 {No Change} 2lb of 80% lean ground beef
$3.19 {No Change} 5.6oz. Aquafresh Triple Protection toothpaste
$1.29 {-$0.70} 1lb Seedless White Grapes
$3.49 {No Change} 5lb Idaho Potatoes
$2.29 {No Change} 3 Bars of Dial Soap white
$27.99 {+$2.50} Nestle Good Start 2 Natural Cultures 9-24 Months baby food
$2.99 {No Change} 12 oz. box of Kellogg’s Cornflakes
$2.99 {-$0.50} 11.3 oz Folgers Classic Roast coffee
$5.49 {No Change} 3lb Uncle Bens long grain rice
$1.79 {No change} 4 pack 9 Lives cat food
$2.69 {-$0.30} 50 oz. Ajax laundry detergent
$3.49 {+$0.30} 5lb Domino Pure Cane Granulated Sugar
Total: $93.00 {-$1.63}

As you can see 10 of the 20 items this month had a price change, resulting in an overall reduction in the total of $1.63. So for the time being the pendulum swings to the deflation side…

-Luke Sidewalker
-Current balance $20.94

The day is finally upon us for the inaugural shopping with Sidewalker feature and the list has been finalized. We often hear the talking heads on finance TV blather on about inflation and they often reference a basket of commodities, a basket of currencies, a basket of bonds etc. That is great (for them anyway), but I have never seen Bonds ready-mixed with mayonnaise, or oven-ready Gold, or Light Sweet Crude cooking oil in my basket when I go shopping. So I have set out to create a list of twenty products we all find in our shopping baskets on a regular basis, and I’m going to track their cost once a month. Hopefully this will help us “foot soldiers” defending our cash on the front lines in the battle against inflation! Think of it as an inflation barometer.

I’d just like to make a few points. I will do this “shop” on the weekday closest to the 15th every month. This is not a budget exercise, I could get the stuff cheaper by using coupons and/or changing brands, but I want to choose products that are readily available in supermarkets from coast to coast. I’m not a dietitian, do not use this list and market it as the “Sidewalker Diet Plan”! I wanted to choose products that we see on our shopping baskets more often than televisions, cars, washer/dryers and houses that the economists like to use as a measure of inflation/deflation. It does not represent the weekly shop to stock the pantry at Castle Sidewalker.

$4.49 1lb Land O’ Lakes unsalted butter
$3.29 1 dozen Eggland’s Best large grade ‘A’ eggs
$1.66 2 liter bottle of Coca-Cola Classic
$4.75 5lb Perdue Oven Stuffer whole roaster chicken
$9.99 12 pack of Charmin Ultra Strong toilet paper
$2.50 1 loaf of Wonder Bread Classic White
$3.79 2.5 Gallons of Poland Spring drinking water
$2.79 6.4oz. Starkist Chunk Light Tuna in water
$4.98 2lb of 80% lean ground beef
$3.19 5.6oz. Aquafresh Triple Protection toothpaste
$1.99 1lb Seedless White Grapes
$3.49 5lb Idaho Potatoes
$2.29 3 Bars of Dial Soap white
$25.49 Nestle Good Start 2 Natural Cultures 9-24 Months baby food
$2.99 12 oz. box of Kellogg’s Cornflakes
$3.49 11.3 oz Folgers Classic Roast coffee
$5.49 3lb Uncle Bens long grain rice
$1.79 4 pack 9 Lives cat food
$2.99 50 oz. Ajax laundry detergent
$3.19 5lb Domino Pure Cane Granulated Sugar
Total: $94.63

So there we have it, the baseline has been set at $94.63 it will be interesting to see what number we come up with next month and to monitor any future fluctuations. We must keep a vigilant eye out for the stealth inflation tactic of shrinkage as well! Isn’t it weird how every price seems to end with a 9. I had never noticed that before, all very weird. Any psycology majors out there want to give us the reasoning behind that?

I would like to give a big thank you to Mrs. B the Pagan Soccer Mom for sending her “angry horde of pagans” to help me build my list. And indeed thanks to everyone who participated in the list building, it was much appreciated.

In other news, I busted through $18 last night…

-Luke Sidewalker
-Current balance $18.01